Ill. St- W. K'y write up and pick

[GreenDoberman]

This game boils down to two factors for me: coaching and home court.

Western Kentucky lost 4 of 5 starters from last year and has unproven former Hilltopper Darrin Horn on the bench. The Toppers have been over their head in competition so far this season and have looked ugly at times.

Ill. St. also has a new coach, but not a rookie. Porter Moser turned around a decrepit Little Rock program and is looking to do the same in Norman. Moser has the program headed in the right direction, even though the Redbirds will likely take their lumps this season.

Ill. St. is typically a tough place to play and is possesses one of the biggest homecourt advantages in the Missouri Valley. Western has already played at places like Auburn and vs. Louisville in Nashville. They were, however, blown out in both games.

Most have wondered why Ill. St. is the favorite here and questioned their schedule thus far. Looking closer they have faced several teams under the radar that are of high caliber, notably Northern Ill. and Ill-Chicago.

The projection here is Landry goes off for 20 or more for Redbirds, Moser's halftime adjustments win the chess match over the green rookie Horn, and the cozy confines of home spur the Redbirds to an 11 point victory.

This game shapes up much like last night's EWU-Santa Clara game and I will predict a similar score.

Green Doberman speaks:
Ill. St. 76 W. Kentucky 65

Good luck!

 

[GamblinMan+]

I like the write up Green...I was leaning towards taking the points here. I just don't know how the Red Birds are going to contend with the inside game of the Hilltoppers (especially Dixon). I was thinking the line was generous given the ugly record both SU and ATS for W. Kentucky.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Dixon does not concern me. He is lazy, lacks stamina, and gets in foul trouble. I imagine the Redbirds will double down on him and force the Hilltoppers to beat them from the outside. If Wells and Lambert get hot from the outside then the Redbirds could get in trouble. But considering Wells shoots 23% from beyond the arc, I'll definitely take my chances here.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Game laid out perfectly and Redbirds choke it away at the end. I couldn't get the radio broadcast on the net for 2nd half, but know they were up 8 with 1 1/2 to play and went scoreless rest of way to lose in OT. Oh well, this happens sometimes with mediocre teams. A loser for the day, but still like the way it went down except for last minute. We can only try again!